Analysis: How parish votes effected Louisiana’s outcome

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BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) – As the election drags on into day three, it’s clear that small counties, or in Louisiana’s case, parishes hold a lot of power when determining an outcome. Here’s how the parishes voted.

John Couvillon with JMC analytics and Polling, says the way the state voted was not far against the norm. In metro areas like East Baton Rouge Parish and Orleans Parish it’s normal to see a lot more blue. Where Hillary Clinton carried EBR Parish by 9 points in 2016, Biden got 14.

Couvillon says that Biden was able to surpass Clinton’s numbers but he couldn’t out perform Governor John Bel Edwards.

The governor’s campaign tactics made his political orientation appear almost ambiguous.

Couvillon says Governor Edwards touted his relationship with President Trump and his ability to work well in a bipartisan establishment.

In a hypothetical scenario, Couvillon says these tactics would have served Biden well in Louisiana. He couldn’t speak on it’s effectiveness on the rest of the county.

Meanwhile, in Jefferson parish the trend toward blue votes continued

“Trump under performed in that parish in 2016, carrying that parish by 14 points,” Couvillon says.

Even though President Trump won this parish, the numbers he won with dipped slightly which implies a small shift. In 2016, the president garnered a 55 to 41 margin. This year, he pulled a 55 to 44 margin.

Smaller parishes with more rural communities like Pointe Coupee Parish were the backbone of the president’s win. Couvillon says these voters are typically blue-collar workers.

This group tends to have a strong allegiance to voting red and they continued as expected on election night.

The president held a 61 to 38 margin which was a jump from 2016 numbers. Vermillion Parish also increased with a Trump holding a 80 to 18 margin.

From Couvillon’s perspective, these numbers indicated that the larger turnout of voters created an intense pull from both sides this election season.

“The urban and the rural are moving in opposite directions but the over all impact is statewide cancel each other out.”

Senator Bill Cassidy benefited in areas where President Trump fell short. Couvillon says this is due to his political persona. Some traditionally red voters turned off by Trump’s rhetoric or politics may find Senator Cassidy more appealing. He picked up some of the president’s slack in metro areas.

Metrics aside, President Trump walked away with 58 percent of the votes in Louisiana.


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