TRACKING THE TROPICS with Meteorologist Scot Pilie — I’m just as over this as you are.
Invest 95L has been initiated in the Western Caribbean near Grand Cayman. National Hurricane Center has increased development odds to a MEDIUM 60% chance of development within the next 3-5 days. Based on satellite presence, I would expect these percentages to increase.
Next name on the list is #Zeta.
Regardless of development, system is worth watching, mainly for residents in Eastern Gulf Coast, Florida, Cuba, & Bahamas. However, can’t write it off completely just yet, even for Louisiana & the Central Gulf Coast. At this point, most models only show weak development into a tropical storm.
A stronger system would favor a more northeast track, well east away from our area. A weaker system could be steered more west initially, bringing the system closer to the Central Gulf Coast.
Some models do showcase some of the tropical moisture spreading into the south/central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. Until a bonafide tropical system forms, don’t put too much stock into the forecast models.
Forecast models will struggle with potential track & intensity until a system actually develops. If anything wonky did try and happen with the system into the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear appears likely to hinder the system.
Water temperatures are still plenty warm enough to support development, especially in the south-central Gulf & Western Caribbean. Temps are slightly cooler in the northern Gulf in the upper 70s.
Nothing to worry or stress about at this time, simply something to watch.
If we see Zeta develop, the 2020 season would tie 2005 with the most named storms in a single hurricane season on record.