Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be issued for the Northern Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana as early as Sunday from TD14, for potential impacts arriving Monday-Tuesday.
This system has my close attention, and the northern Gulf Coast should be in “Pay Attention Mode.” Growing potential for impacts, but to who & to what degree remain unclear.
TD14 will have another 24-48 hours of more favorable conditions in the western Caribbean for gradual strengthening before moving into the southern Gulf by Saturday night-Sunday morning. Dry air & wind shear may limiting factor in strengthening once in the Gulf.. But, it’s late August over very warm water, so the system bears close watching.
Official track brings system up to 65mph off TX/LA border by Tuesday morning. Cone of uncertainty stretches from Corpus Christi to New Orleans, which showcases the large amount of uncertainty.
A more organized system would likely be steered more north towards the northern Gulf Coast TX/LA/MS. Weaker system would head further northwest to TX/Mexico.
TD13’s future remains hazy as well. Latest track brings system near the Florida Straits by Monday as a Category 1 Hurricane & into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday morning.
Remember, forecast track & intensity will be highly dependent on system’s ability to avoid land interaction with the Greater Antilles. More land interaction = weaker system, further south track.
This system, in addition to TD14, looks to pose a threat to the Gulf Coast. The details about to who & at what strength remain highly unclear.
Worth closely watching down the road. Have those hurricane safety plans & hurricane safety kits stocked just in case!