In a plot twist of events…Tropical Storm Wilfred & Subtropical Storm Alpha have formed in the Atlantic. This means Depression 22 in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico would be called #Beta when upgraded, likely later today.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22 — Likely to become Tropical Storm #Beta later today. Tropical Storm Wilfred developed in the Eastern Atlantic. The forecast track for this one is gnarly. Let me preface that the forecast uncertainty about TD 22’s future track & intensity is very large, especially past Sunday/Monday.
Here’s the breakdown from Meteorologist Scot Pilie — This system is expected to drift northward over the next 24 hours. Drawn northward by a weakness/trough in the atmosphere. Localized heavy rainfall possible along the coast, gloomy weather & scattered showers inland southeast Louisiana.
High pressure will steer our disturbance westward/stalling it in the western Gulf by Sunday-Monday. Some models kill it off while moving into south TX/MX.
After that point, things get tricky. By this early next week, the system may begin to move northward/northeastward. Forecast models widely vary on how organized the system will be at that point. Wind shear & dry air looks to become a big hindrance for the system. However, as we’ve seen many times this year…don’t let your guard down! Official NHC forecast brings Beta to a category 1 hurricane before wind shear/dry air begins to weaken the system.
We all have storm fatigue. And, we could be talking about this storm for quite a while…even into the middle-late part of next week. But, it’s important to stay prepared and vigilant.
Very heavy rain expected to fall over the Gulf of Mexico, fortunately with most of the rain offshore the next 5 days. Expecting intermittent heavy rain along the Louisiana coast the next 7 days with 3-7″ expected. 2-4″ along and south of I-10.Expect these numbers to fluctuate, potentially drastically, as the forecast becomes more clear.
Stay tuned & monitor the forecast!