Tropical Storm Cristobal to bring flash flood risk, storm surge, and power outages to Louisiana and Mississippi.

Weather

Finish preparations! Tropical Storm Cristobal is coming whether we like it or not. Growing concern of a significant rainfall event for areas east of where Tropical Storm Cristobal comes ashore.

Latest 5PM NHC Update — No change to track or strength of Cristobal. Max sustained winds of 50mph, gusting to 65mph. System heavily lopsided on eastern side, as still ingesting dry air on southern side.

Expected to make landfall as strong tropical storm in Terrebonne Parish Sunday afternoon-evening. Greatest impacts along and east of center. 

The system remains heavily lopsided with most of the action on the eastern side due to dry air intrusion. However, as moisture slowly wraps around the system today, I still believe there is a 24 hour window for continued strengthening until landfall.

Regardless of exact wind strength, growing more concerned of a significant rainfall event for areas east of where Tropical Storm Cristobal comes ashore. The Weather Prediction Center has raised the “Excessive Rainfall Outlook” to a Moderate(Level 3 out of 4) for southeast Louisiana & south Mississippi.

A Moderate Risk means there is a 20-50% chance rainfall could EXCEED flash flood guidance, meaning even more than model data is projecting. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some areas receive 12+ inches of rainfall tonight-Monday.

The key? Not everyone will see the 12+ inches of rain! Some spots may see 4-5″ while just 20 miles away they see 8-12″. It will only be the spots that see the “training” of rain bands, which is nearly impossible to predict.

Tropical Storm Warnings flying from Vermilion Parish to the Florida Panhandle, which encompasses all of southeast Louisiana. 30-55mph winds likely within the TS Warning, with numerous power outages possible.

Storm surge of 2-5 feet likely outside levee system from Mouth of Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. 1-3 feet inside Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas.

Isolated tornado threat with eastern rain bands, especially late Sunday-Monday morning.

More details to come later today! Finish preparations. Primary impacts will arrive Sunday-Sunday night and flash flood threat will continue through Monday.

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