It’s the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season…and Mother Nature is wasting no time to remind us that hurricane season has arrived.
Growing confidence that Tropical Storm Cristobal will form in the Bay of Campeche/southern Gulf of Mexico by mid week.
The National Hurricane Center is now giving Invest 93-L a high 80% chance of development within the next 48 hours as the remnants from Tropical Storm Amanda in the East Pacific move into the southern Gulf.
In the short term, the system is expected to move little in the southern Gulf through Wednesday-Thursday.
However, by late week into this weekend, all of the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should have a close eye on this disturbance for potential impacts late week into early next week.
Any impacts in our area would arrive this weekend into early next week…but it’s unclear exactly what those impacts will be until we gain a better idea of where the system will trek.
Forecast models range in intensity from the system completely dying out over Mexico to hurricane strength in the western Gulf. Do NOT focus on one special model run. Consensus is for a minimal-moderate tropical storm risk.
Ultimately, the biggest risks from an early season tropical system often include the heavy rainfall and flash flood risk along and East of where the system moves. Expect these rainfall totals to get modified as the overall setup becomes more clear.
Stay tuned! Lots of time to watch! Have a trusted weather source.