The National Hurricane Center is indicating a high likelihood of tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week. The area in red indicates the zone of potential development with the current chance listed at 80% as of Monday morning. This system will form due to a trough of low pressure moving through the southeast part of the country and off the coast of the Florida panhandle.
At the moment it is still too early in the process to tell what will develop in terms of intensity. At the very least it looks like we will get a low pressure system that is moving west across the north central Gulf of Mexico through the week. Strengthening will be possible thanks to the very warm water right now in the Gulf. A tropical storm is possible and potentially even a hurricane depending on the track.
The other issue is where will this system go. Right now it looks like the area of low pressure will remain south of the Louisiana coast as it heads west and then moves north at some point near the Texas coast. This would mean an increased rain chance for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi and some potential for coastal flooding outside the levee system.
This is still a developing situation however with many questions as to what develops and where. It’s important to note that all of this will be occurring relatively close to the coast. That means less time to prepare should a significant system move this way.
Have plans in place should you need them in the event of a tropical system. We are in hurricane season and this is a good reminder to be prepared.
As always stay with WGNO on air and online for updates through the week.