Tropical Depression 22 likely to form in the southern Gulf

Weather

Special Outlook issued for Invest 90L in the southwest Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche. Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm #Wilfred likely to form. Hurricane Hunters scheduled to investigate later today. 90% chance of development over the next 3-5 days.

The forecast cone for this one…could be gnarly. It could look like a big circle. This system is expected to stall/meander for many days. It is no imminent threat to the northern Gulf Coast, but we will have to monitor it closely by the early part of next week.


Stout high pressure will keep this disturbance trapped in the South Gulf the next ~2 days, with most guidance stalling/meandering the future likely future depression/tropical storm in the southern Gulf. Some models kill it off while moving into south TX/MX.

After that point, things get tricky. By this weekend-early next week, the system may begin to move northward. Forecast models widely vary on how far north the system will get before another ridge of high pressure builds in, potentially shunting the system back west.

What does that mean? We could be talking about this future storm for quite a while…even into the middle-late part of next week. Very heavy rain expected to fall over the Gulf of Mexico, fortunately with most of the rain offshore the next 5 days. Expect these numbers to fluctuate as the forecast becomes more clear.

There’s a large amount of uncertainty with any system until it actually develops. Forecast models will windshield wiper back and forth with varying potential outcomes until it gets a handle on steering/organization of the system. It’s worth watching from Florida to Mexico at this point.
Stay tuned & monitor the forecast.

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