Tropical Depression 22 forms in the Gulf. Expected to become Alpha later today. Monitor the forecast.

Weather

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22 UPDATE from Meteorologist Scot Pilie — I’m calling this one #WonkyWilfred. Depression 22 likely to become Tropical Storm Alpha later today. The forecast track for this one is gnarly. Let me preface that the forecast uncertainty about TD 22’s future track & intensity is very uncertain, especially past Sunday/Monday.

Here’s the breakdown — This system is expected to drift northward over the next 24 hours. Drawn northward by a weakness/trough in the atmosphere. By late Saturday/Sunday, stout high pressure will build in. This high pressure will steer our disturbance westward/stalling it in the western Gulf by Sunday-Monday. Some models kill it off while moving into south TX/MX.

After that point, things get tricky. By this early next week, the system may begin to move northward/northeastward. Forecast models widely vary on how organized the system will be at that point. Wind shear & dry air looks to become a big hindrance for the system. However, as we’ve seen many times this year…don’t let your guard down! Official NHC forecast brings Alpha to a category 1 hurricane before wind shear/dry air begins to weaken the system.

We all have storm fatigue. And, we could be talking about this storm for quite a while…even into the middle-late part of next week. But, it’s important to stay prepared and vigilant.

Very heavy rain expected to fall over the Gulf of Mexico, fortunately with most of the rain offshore the next 5 days. Expecting intermittent heavy rain along the Louisiana coast the next 7 days with 3-5″ expected. 2-4″ along and south of I-10.Expect these numbers to fluctuate, potentially drastically, as the forecast becomes more clear.

Stay tuned & monitor the forecast!

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