We continue to monitor an area of showers and storms in the southern Gulf of Mexico for development this week. The National Hurricane Center currently has a 80% chance of development through the next 5 days as this system drifts to the north.
Right now it does not seem likely that this system will intensify enough to where wind or storm surge will become a factor, although any low that forms and closes off would still need to be watched.
This looks like a rainmaker for the most part. The main questions revolve around the timing and placement of the heaviest rain. So far models have been pretty consistent putting the area of heaviest rain over southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
There is still a chance this shifts over the next couple of days though, with a track to the east more likely. The other difference in the two main models is timing. One looks to bring more rain in Friday and Friday night while the other is more Saturday and Saturday night.
Right now it looks like amounts of 4-7 inches will be possible, but higher amounts will also be possible. Flooding would be the concern with locally heavy rain over a 2-3 day time frame.
As always stay with WGNO for the latest through the week.