Tropical Depression 26 has formed and will likely be becoming named Monday, posing a potential Gulf of Mexico threat by late week.
Right now, this is just south of Jamaica. The surrounding environment supports intensification on tap by mid-week as it enters Gulf waters. At that point, local impacts will be better defined.
Some models are quite bullish in intensity, but until Tropical Storm Delta actually forms, exact direction and wind speeds are tough to pinpoint. Currently, the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone of uncertainty spans from west Louisiana to Florida’s panhandle.
Cristobal, Marco, Laura, and Sally proved details will change from tonight to eventual landfall, so pay attention, checking back for forecast updates.
Minimally, I imagine southeast Louisiana should anticipate a significant rainfall event through our upcoming weekend. Heaviest rain bands are area-wide concerns along & east of wherever Delta’s center tracks onshore.
Fortunately, water temperatures have cooled significantly over these last 3 weeks since we were tracking Hurricane Sally. Hurricane Sally’s upwelling and cold fronts impacting New Orleans lately have worked together to cool sea surface temperatures.
Conditions, nonetheless, support tropical development with little shear, ample moisture, and sea surface temperatures warm enough for formation potential reaching 105 mile per hour winds as a strong Category 2, near Category 3 hurricane ahead landfall.
Review your hurricane plan and begin securing lose items or clearing storm drains while taking advantage of the gorgeous weather we have coming until at least Thursday.