Fred path shifts west again, system remains disorganized

Tracking the Tropics

The forecast track for Fred shifted west again Saturday morning from the National Hurricane Center’s update. They continue to note that the storm has been moving more west than expected over the past couple of days and the center line now brings in near the Alabama-Florida border.

The main question at the moment is will the system redevelop an organized center. Right now it is a very weak looking area of storms around a broad center. In fact it is more like a tropical wave than a closed low. If it can regain that core circulation it could strengthen quite a bit before landfall.

Currently the forecast for Fred is to be a tropical storm as it moves inland. However if it is able to organize sooner it does have a chance to become a hurricane. It also looks like the speed slows down near landfall, meaning that flooding will be a significant issue east of of the center.

Right now this looks to stay east of our area. It still is worth watching through because another drift or two to the west would mean more of a possibility of impacts for our area.

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