Rain and flood threat in the forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday


Nicholas formed early Sunday morning and now has 65 mile per hour winds, still classified as a tropical storm. The system’s center has reformed multiple times over these past 24 hours.

This is going to continue slowly moving north through western Gulf of Mexico waters before making landfall near Rockport, Texas late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Right now, we are forecasting for a strong tropical storm or hurricane at landfall. The system will move inland in eastern Texas before curving northeast towards Louisiana. The latest track brings it a bit more south, so closer to Louisiana and Mississippi’s border.

The themes locally across WGNO’s viewin area will be increased tropical moisture and heightened rain along Nicholas’ center and east of wherever its center tracks onshore. It will quickly weaken over land and become a tropical depression before moving into Louisiana. Once approaching the Louisiana, Mississippi border, this is going to be a remnant low.

Where, specifically, it tracks at that point determines how much rain our parishes see. If this is more north near Jackson, rainfall amounts locally will be between 3-5+ inches. If this is more south between Jackson and McComb, rainfall amounts on the Northshore will likely be between 4-6+ inches. The biggest threat for rainfall and localized flash flooding, plus brief-weak spin ups will be Tuesday and Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch is issued from Tuesday morning until Thursday morning for WGNO’s entire viewing area.

Overall, totals will likely be between 3-7+ inches in much of WGNO’s viewing area over these next 5 days with localized higher amounts possible. Rain chances stay consistent through much of the upcoming week, and many spots will see locally heavy downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding with traditional drainage systems covered by debris. This is going to keep highs in the 80s. Please have a way to receive warning information on hand. Tornadoes and river flooding are a concern, as well. Rain chances start to come down Thursday into this weekend. We have more information on these impacts tonight during WGNO News at 6PM and 10PM.

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