⚠️BREAKING⚠️ –#ZETA is now a hurricane with max winds of 80mph.
Little change in track, maybe a tad shift west with landfall in southeast Louisiana Wednesday evening. Overall thinking remains unchanged.
Hurricane Watches likely to get issued later today for parts of Louisiana & the northern Gulf Coast, with potential landfall anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle late Wednesday-Wednesday night. Most model guidance brings the system ashore in southeast Louisiana.
Fortunately, this system will be moving fast as it moves north.
However, it will bring sizeable impacts. hurricane wind conditions/localized 2-5″ rain/coastal flooding & storm surge along and east of where center comes ashore.
MAX POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS — Early projections based on latest model guidance & National Hurricane Center projected path. Keep in mind, this forecast will be fine tuned as we get closer to landfall late Wednesday.
Average error in projected landfall 2 days from landfall is about 65 miles. Start simple preparations. Power outages will be likely along projected track. Hurricane Watches will be issued later today for southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi, & parts of the northern Gulf Coast.
The key? Wind shear & slightly cooler water temps in the northern Gulf look to be inhibitors to intensification as the system moves northward into the north Gulf. Right now, most guidance brings the system ashore as a minimal hurricane intensity as it nears the northern Gulf Coast.
Timing of an approaching cold front & strength of the system will dictate path of the system. Faster front = more northeast path towards eastern Gulf Coast in AL/FL Panhandle. Slower front = southeast LA/Southern MS.
Remember, in this situation, 50 miles will make a huge difference for SE Louisiana. If it goes 50 miles East, our impacts will be fairly minimal in SE Louisiana. 50 miles West, and impacts will be higher.
Stay tuned to the forecast.