Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 formed Wednesday morning in the northeast Gulf. This means the system is likely to officially be classified and the National Hurricane Center wants to get a head start on the various products they issue. It is likely we have a tropical storm and then a hurricane moving across the northern Gulf over the next few days.
The wind forecast as of Friday morning puts the center south of Terrebonne Parish. Most of the strongest wind stays offshore based on the current projections. The biggest impact here would be the storm surge potential. A relatively slow moving storm means that we will see wind piling up water along the coast. This will include the western side of the lakes. Right now that looks like the biggest impact. Low lying spots will be flooded.
A storm surge watch is currently in effect for southeast Louisiana. We have the potential of tide levels 3-5 feet above normal due to the flow around the storm.
The first forecast track of what will become Barry moves the storm south of the LA coast nearby and then turning northward to southwest Louisiana. Expect strengthening up until landfall and a category 2 will be possible. IF this path holds it would minimize our local impacts. However that being said any shift to the east would put our area under a significant rain threat. Here is the rainfall forecast based on the current track. Tremendous rain and flooding potential just west of our viewing area starting around the Atchafalaya and moving west. Again, any shift to the east would put this area more into southeast Louisiana.
This is still very early in the process. We are still waiting on a true storm and center to form, and expect model shifts and uncertainty until then. Be prepared and have your hurricane kit ready.
As always stay with WGNO on air and online for the latest.