Today is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it sure looks like it. We now have 2 tropical storms, and 4 areas of disturbed weather the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential development.
For the Gulf of Mexico — We are watching a tropical wave in the Eastern Bahamas.
The NHC gives a 20% chance of development this weekend-early next week as the wave moves into the Gulf of Mexico. I would put these odds slightly higher as wind shear will be low & water is warm. Fortunately, dry air looks to inhibit the system, and any development should be slow to occur.
Regardless of classification, an unsettled weather pattern appears likely Friday-next Tuesday/Wednesday. Periods of localized heavy rainfall will be possible. Expecting 2-5″ of rain over the next 5-7 days, with localized higher amounts.
Tropical Storm #Paulette heading towards Bermuda.
Tropical Storm #Rene heading out to sea. Neither pose a threat to the Gulf.
In the far east Atlantic, the next potential trouble maker is a wave currently rolling off Africa with a 90% chance of development over the next 3-5 days. This system is further south than Rene/Paulette, and it could pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles/Caribbean in 6-7 days. This will be one to watch down the road, but it’s still WAY too far out to speculate on where this system will go.