TUESDAY EVENING CRISTOBAL UPDATE from Meteorologist Scot Pilie — Tropical Storm Cristobal is slightly stronger in the Gulf of Mexico with 50mph sustained winds.
Growing potential for impacts in Louisiana and the Gulf Coast this weekend into early next week from Cristobal.
The degree of impacts for Louisiana and south Mississippi is still VERY uncertain, due to how the system interacts with Mexico over the next 72 hours.
Rainfall, storm surge, and wind impacts are very unclear at this stage. But, I would be prepared for the potential for some form of impacts.
I have put Louisiana within the “Pay Attention Zone,” as it’s too early for specific impacts. But, I would review your hurricane safety plan & make sure you’re fully prepped with the essentials.
At the very least, increased rainfall risk from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle from Saturday-Tuesday.
Regardless of track and intensity of Tropical Storm Cristobal, heavy rainfall is possible late this week into early next week across the Gulf Coast. Localized flash flooding is also possible.
Remember, these amounts will change drastically as the projected path changes with Cristobal. Remember, greatest rainfall amounts expected north and east of where the center goes.
Here’s the setup —
Tropical Storm Cristobal is expected to move over or very close to coastal Mexico the next 2-3 days, this may cause the system to spend much of its lifetime as a lopsided, sloppy, weaker tropical storm.
However, if the system remains over water, and the circulation remains in tact through Friday, the window opens for the system to become a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane.
Down the road, the forecast models also indicate the system could ingest dry air, which would aid in keeping the system weaker…but this remains uncertain.
If the system doesn’t weaken over Mexico, the European model shows less dry air & a larger window for the system to intensify up until landfall on Sunday.
Stay tuned! Check the forecast daily!