BREAKING — Tropical Depression THREE has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Expected to become Tropical Storm Cristobal over the next 24 hours before stalling.
In the short term, the system is expected to move very little in the southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche through Wednesday-Thursday. In fact, some models bring the system back over land… and potentially weakening drastically.
However, by late week into this weekend, all of the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should have a close eye on this disturbance as a northward turn is expected with gradual intensification.
Official National Hurricane Center track brings the system up to 60mph by Saturday morning.
All eyes on the northern Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should have a close eye on the system for potential impacts this weekend into early next week.
Any impacts in our area would arrive this weekend into early next week…but it’s unclear exactly what those impacts will be until we gain a better idea of where the system will trek.
Forecast models range in intensity from the system completely dying out over Mexico to hurricane strength in the western Gulf. Do NOT focus on one special model run. Consensus is for a minimal-moderate tropical storm risk.
Ultimately, the biggest risks from an early season tropical system often include the heavy rainfall and flash flood risk along and East of where the system moves. Expect these rainfall totals to get modified as the overall setup becomes more clear.