5:30AM Thursday: Still waiting on Gulf development


Overall no real change to the system in the Gulf overnight as we continue to watch it for development into a tropical depression. The NHC still has the likelihood at 90% over the next 5 days. Development or not though there will be a lot of tropical moisture and rain with this system, likely well east of the center of circulation.

The biggest question for us remains whether the center makes landfall near our area or further west. A landfall over us would actually keep the heaviest rain well east into the Mobile area. Further west we would have the chance for higher rainfall amounts.

Right now on average it still looks like 3-6 inches of rain through Sunday with the higher amounts on the eastern side. That could shift either way though depending on the eventual track. Isolated tornadoes will be possible within the heavier rain bands. Coastal flooding should be minor. Again, a track farther east would mean less rain overall.

For today it actually feels decent out there thanks to lower humidity. Dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s behind a cold front that moved through yesterday. Look for plenty of sun today with low 90s. After that tropical showers will start to move in later tonight and tomorrow.

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