Growing potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is now giving Invest 92L a 30% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Barry within the next 48 hours, and an high 80% chance within 3-5 days.
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Wednesday, if necessary.
The future path, intensity, and impacts remain unclear. However, growing consensus for some sort of impacts in Texas and Louisiana late week between Thursday-Sunday.
According to the latest European Ensemble Models, the system could trek anywhere between Galveston, Texas to Gulf Shores, Alabama. That represents a LARGE amount of uncertainty in the forecast. However, a growing number of the models are directing the system as a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane towards LA/TX.
Still too early to iron out details until the system has actually developed, which will likely not occur until sometime Wednesday.
Regardless of development, heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding is coming to parts of the Gulf Coast this week.
Right now, the Weather Prediction Center is showcasing some spots offshore receiving 10-15” of rain through Friday…but it’s unlikely all of this rain will remain offshore depending on where the system tracks. They are simply waiting for more consistent guidance on where the system will go once in the Gulf of Mexico.
Stay tuned for changes in the forecast this week, and if you live from Texas to Florida, it would be wise to restock your hurricane safety kit & review your hurricane preparation plan.
Stay tuned to WGNO for the latest weather updates.