Latest 10PM Update from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Dorian. Moving NW at 13mph. Max winds of 50mph. Still battling dry air.
Unfortunately, by late week when Dorian nears the Bahamas, the environment appears more ripe for intensification. Latest track brings Dorian to a Category 1 Hurricane before landfall on Sunday in Florida.
Remember, intensity is the most difficult thing to forecast…especially with a system of Dorian’s small size. The system could easily be stronger than currently forecast, or weaker than currently forecast…as small system’s like Dorian are more susceptible to dramatic fluctuations in strength.
If you live in the Florida Peninsula, time to start simple preparations & prepare for potential landfalling hurricane this weekend.
For Gulf Coast residents & Southeast U.S. residents outside of the official forecast 5-Day Cone, we are in “Pay Attention Mode,” which means this system isn’t of imminent concern…but it’s a system worth closely watching into Labor Day Weekend.
If you’re planning a trip to the Florida Panhandle beaches this weekend, I wouldn’t cancel your plans just yet! There will be scattered storms around Sunday…but impacts, if any, from Dorian would be by Monday-Wednesday of next week along the Panhandle.
Most forecast models continue to keep system in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico IF it ever got that far west, but lots of steering factors yet to be ironed out with this storm. Stay tuned! Check the forecast daily.