10:30PM Thursday: Gulf system still disorganized


We continue to watch Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 Thursday evening as it slowly moves north. Right now the system is still not very well organized and has yet to become a depression or storm. The forecast continues to call for this to be a low end tropical storm at landfall but that is not a guarantee.

Right now on average it still looks like 3-6 inches of rain through Sunday with the higher amounts on the eastern side. That could shift either way though depending on the eventual track. Isolated tornadoes will be possible within the heavier rain bands. Coastal flooding should be minor. Again, a track farther east would mean less rain overall.

It appears the heaviest rain may not be setting up just to the east of our area along the MS coast and over through southern Alabama. At the very least the heaviest rain is going to be well east of the center. Areas west of I-55 will see little rain from this system.

Keep in mind even after this system is out by Saturday evening we still have periods of rain in the forecast through Tuesday, so the threat for localized flooding will remain.

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