Gulf development more likely

The low in the Gulf of Mexico now has a high chance of development

The area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico now has a high chance of development, 80%, over the next 5 days according to the National Hurricane Center. Currently this system is producing a large area of showers and storms over a very broad circulation.

This system will be moving northeast over the next few days and doing so very quickly. As it does so there will be a small window of time for development. At the moment it looks like a low end tropical storm would be the most we see.

Impacts in southeast Louisiana right now look to be mostly along the coast. Latest forecast models keep the center mostly offshore to the southeast. That will mean the heaviest rain and strongest winds stay offshore. This system will likely intensify a bit more as it moves over to the Florida panhandle.

At this time you should expect tropical showers on Friday, especially on the south shore and along the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. Winds will be gusty at times on Friday potentially in the 20-30 mph range. Tide levels will be elevated enough to cause some minor coastal flooding in the low spots. Expect rough seas in the Gulf.

Otherwise this system moves east quickly Friday night and Saturday is looking mainly dry.

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