Tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico?

The area in orange represents a medium chance of development

The National Hurricane Center highlighted an area in the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning that represents a medium chance, 50%, of development during the next five days. The system being watched is in the southwest Gulf and northwest Bay of Campeche.

As this system drifts northeast most models agree on the formation of a surface area of low pressure. The question will be the eventual track of this system as it moves through the northern Gulf.

At the moment significant development does not appear likely. A tropical depression will be possible however by Friday. This will pick up speed and move across the northern Gulf on Friday and Saturday.

A track that takes the low slightly more inland over southeast Louisiana would mean a potential for some heavy rain in the form of tropical showers along with gusty winds. High tides could also create minor coasting flooding concerns in the lowest spots.

A track that stays closer to the coast or just offshore would mean minimal impacts over land from rain and wind. Coastal waters would still be impacted.

It’s a little too early to tell where this system goes. It is a situation where a 50 mile different in either direction would make a large difference in the impacts over land. At the very least prepare for increasing rain chances later Friday through the first part of Saturday.

Continue to stay with WGNO on air and online the next couple of days while details surrounding this forecast become more clear.

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