Wet start to the week
Rain and storms will be likely to start your 4th of July week as an area of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf of Mexico. As of noon Monday the system was south of Mobile and moving slowly west. The westerly movement is around a ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere to the north of the area.
This is not a tropical system. If it was farther south over more water and had more time before moving inland there may be a chance for some development. However by Tuesday morning the center of the circulation will be over southeast Louisiana.
The biggest threat with this storm will be heavy rain. We have already seen a few rounds of storms Monday morning moving through on the western side. That will increase over the next 24 hours.
Most likely we won’t be getting rain the whole time, rather waves of intermittent showers and storms. However some of these areas of rain will be heavy. The forecast model shows one such area around noon Tuesday on the south shore.
Unlike most tropical lows, it looks like the heaviest activity with this system will be on the west to southern side of the center.
Expect scattered storms to increase by Monday evening and continue moving through off and on through Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening the low will be far enough west that we start to see rain chance go down.
Be careful driving in these storms as heavy rain will reduce visibility. Also remember that if you or your kids are outdoors, you need to get inside if you hear thunder.
As always stay with WGNO on air and online.