Disturbance slowly pushes toward Gulf; development not likely at this time

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NEW ORLEANS — The disturbance in the Caribbean continues to remain broad and disorganized as it slowly pushes northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually extreme southern Gulf of Mexico.

Because the system remains so disorganized and interaction with the Central American coast and Yucatan Peninsula will hinder development, the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 0 percent chance of developing before crossing the Yucatan.

If it emerges on the other side into the Gulf of Mexico, the chance rises slightly to 20% before landfall somewhere along the northern Mexican or southern Texas coastlines. While the path appears to take it away from the northern Gulf Coast, we shouldn’t let our guard down.

The disturbance has a 20% chance of tropical development if it can survive crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and make it into the Gulf of Mexico.

Most of the moisture with this system will be on the northern and eastern sides of the system, and while it’s still too early to tell how the interaction with land will affect the system, there’s enough certainty that we will see increased chances for rain over the weekend, particularly on Father’s Day Sunday, even though the “center” of the system will remain well to the west. Center is used in quotations because there’s no guarantee the system will develop a closed center. It may just remain a broad, elongated, trough of low pressure.

We will continue to monitor this system in the WGNO Weather Center and will continue to bring you updates on air and online.

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