Caribbean disturbance headed toward Gulf

NEW ORLEANS — A disturbance in the far western Caribbean Sea, just off the South American coast is slowly drifting northward and is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

According to the National Hurricane Center, it has a 10 percent chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and a 20 percent chance of development in the next five days. Even though development chances are low at the moment, the Gulf is slightly more conducive for tropical development once it finally enters it on Friday.

The path at this time takes the disturbance into Northern Mexico or extreme southern Texas over the weekend but the track could change. The other thing to keep in mind is that is not going to be a well-organized system. The bulk of the moisture will be on the northern and eastern side of the system so any track shift to the east would bring heavy rains along the northern Gulf Coast.

We will continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance in the WGNO Weather Center and continue to bring you updates throughout the week on-air and online.