Disturbance has moderate chance of development in the Gulf this week

The disturbance in the Caribbean Sea has a 40% chance for tropical development as it moves north into the Gulf

A broad area of low pressure continues to remain disorganized in the Caribbean Sea and while development is unlikely in the next two days, chances have improved that it could acquire tropical characteristics once it enters the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

The chances of tropical development are near 0% through the next 48 hours and 40% through the next 5 days.

Currently situated north of the Nicaraguan coast, or east of the coast of Belize, the low is producing widespread cloudiness and rain throughout Cuba and up the Florida Peninsula. As conditions become more favorable for development in the Gulf, we should get a better idea to the track of the system as it slowly pushes north.

Even if the disturbance doesn’t become tropical, the threat of widespread, heavy rain and possible flooding will accompany the system, particularly to its east.

Due to the uncertainty of the path of this system, all interests along the Gulf Coast, including those with vacation plans this holiday weekend should monitor the progress of this system.

The WGNO weather team will continue to bring you developments on-air and online as soon as they are available.