‘Disorganized’ tropical wave moves toward the Bahamas
Nothing new to really report with the tropical wave southeast of the Bahamas. The main thing to look at here is the fact that the center (circled) is well removed from any thunderstorm activity. This means the system is not strengthening, and will continue to have a hard time doing so.
Right now there is no closed low, so we still are only dealing with a tropical wave. The general movement continues to be to the west-northwest.
Until an actual system develops model uncertainty will continue. There just is not a fixed point for them to work off of. However, the wave is producing tropical storm force winds within some of the thunderstorms.
The storm is also dealing with a lot of dry air to the northwest of the center. That makes it likely that it won’t strengthen much through the start of the weekend.
After that, conditions could become more favorable for development as the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
All possibilities are on the table at the moment. From a weak storm to a stronger one, and also from the east to the central Gulf.
This is not a time that you should be worried about this storm system.
This is still several days from impacting any of the United States, let alone the northern Gulf.
Continue to watch this through the weekend and have preparations completed should a storm move our way.