The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of
Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 800 am until
300 PM CDT.
Tornadoes…hail to 1 inch in diameter…thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph…and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.
The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Pine belt Mississippi to 35 miles west southwest of Houma Louisiana. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou5).
Remember…a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Discussion…tstms are expected to gradually increase across the watch area this morning as forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of short-wave trough approaching from srn TX. Continued heating/moistening of the pre-frontal boundary layer should gradually remove the cap observed by the 12z regional soundings…yielding MLCAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg. When coupled with moderately strong low-level and deep-layer shear /see 12z Jan sounding/…the setup will support a mixture of bowing and supercell structures capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Aviation…tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500.
Mean storm motion vector 24030.